Forecast TAM 2026 · 109 plazas pisos
Pronóstico bottom-up: TAM 2025 × multiplicadores macro independientes. Generado 2026-05-10.
Headline 2026
Macro multiplicadores (independientes, multiplicativos)
| Driver | Multiplicador | Δ % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| INPC construcción 2025 YoY | 1.041 | +4.1% | T1 INEGI BIE |
| CMIC construcción recovery 2026 | 1.026 | +2.6% | T1 CMIC |
| Cemento lag Q3-Q4 2026 | 1.050 | +5.0% | T2 CANACEM derived |
| Sheinbaum 1.1M Vivienda | 1.018 | +1.8% | T1 CONAVI |
| Hipotecas −9% drag (BBVA) | 0.965 | −3.5% | T1 BBVA Real Estate |
| Vivienda usada 58% renovación lift | 1.025 | +2.5% | T1 BBVA |
| Self-build 62% remesa demand | 1.015 | +1.5% | T1 Moody's |
Combinado: 1.041 × 1.026 × 1.050 × 1.018 × 0.965 × 1.025 × 1.015 = 1.1462 = +14.6%
Top 30 plazas por TAM 2026 forecast
| Plaza | TAM 2025 | TAM 2026 forecast | Q3-Q4 2026 (cemento lag) | Δ % | SOM real | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZMVM (Valle de México) | $3,342M | $3,831M | $4,022M | +14.6% | 0.5% | VIABLE |
| ZM Guadalajara | $1,459M | $1,672M | $1,756M | +14.6% | 1.93% | OPORTUNIDAD |
| ZM Monterrey | $1,170M | $1,341M | $1,408M | +14.6% | 3.89% | ATRACTIVA |
| ZM Tijuana | $669M | $767M | $805M | +14.6% | 0.5% | VIABLE |
| ZM Cancún | $660M | $757M | $794M | +14.6% | 10% | FORTALEZA |
| ZM Querétaro | $544M | $624M | $655M | +14.6% | 0.5% | VIABLE |
| ZM León | $472M | $541M | $568M | +14.6% | 5.36% | ATAQUE |
| ZM Puebla | $465M | $533M | $560M | +14.6% | 3.23% | OPORTUNIDAD |
| ZM Mérida | $400M | $459M | $481M | +14.6% | 10% | FORTALEZA |
| Juárez | $383M | $439M | $461M | +14.6% | 10% | FORTALEZA |
| Mexicali | $342M | $392M | $412M | +14.6% | 0.5% | VIABLE |
| ZM Aguascalientes | $331M | $379M | $398M | +14.6% | 6.67% | ATAQUE |
| ZM La Laguna | $323M | $370M | $389M | +14.6% | 7.55% | ATRACTIVA |
| ZM Toluca | $322M | $369M | $388M | +14.6% | 0.5% | VIABLE |
| Hermosillo | $282M | $323M | $339M | +14.6% | 10% | ATAQUE |
| ZM San Luis Potosí | $269M | $308M | $324M | +14.6% | 3.42% | ATRACTIVA |
| Culiacán | $246M | $282M | $296M | +14.6% | 6.5% | ATAQUE |
| Chihuahua | $238M | $273M | $286M | +14.6% | 10% | FORTALEZA |
| Saltillo | $232M | $266M | $279M | +14.6% | 7.55% | ATAQUE |
| Los Cabos | $208M | $238M | $250M | +14.6% | 0.5% | VIABLE |
| Morelia | $190M | $218M | $229M | +14.6% | 2.6% | OPORTUNIDAD |
| ZM Pachuca | $174M | $199M | $209M | +14.6% | 1.44% | OPORTUNIDAD |
| ZM Tampico | $172M | $197M | $207M | +14.6% | 9.09% | ATAQUE |
| Durango | $172M | $197M | $207M | +14.6% | 10% | ATAQUE |
| ZM Cuernavaca | $166M | $190M | $200M | +14.6% | 3.77% | OPORTUNIDAD |
| ZM Reynosa-Río Bravo | $163M | $187M | $196M | +14.6% | 9.09% | ATAQUE |
| Centro (Villahermosa) | $158M | $181M | $190M | +14.6% | 10% | OPORTUNIDAD |
| Irapuato | $155M | $178M | $187M | +14.6% | 5.36% | ATAQUE |
| Acapulco | $151M | $173M | $182M | +14.6% | 1.64% | VIABLE |
| La Paz | $150M | $172M | $181M | +14.6% | 0.5% | VIABLE |
METODOLOGÍA
Pronóstico bottom-up: TAM 2025 por plaza (SSOT 109 plazas, cobertura ~49% del nacional Mordor Intelligence $41.4B MXN) multiplicado por 7 drivers macro independientes y multiplicativos. Fuentes de multiplicadores: INEGI BIE (INPC construcción YoY), CMIC (proyección recuperación sector), CANACEM (cemento lag Q3-Q4 derivado), CONAVI (programa Sheinbaum 1.1M Vivienda), BBVA Real Estate (hipotecas -9% drag + vivienda usada 58% renovación lift), Moody's (self-build remesa 62%). Combinado multiplicativo: 1.1462 = +14.6%. Archivo fuente: data/forecast-2026.json (última revisión manual: 2026-05-10).