Euromonitor Intelligence

Quarrying of Stone, Sand and Clay

Raw material supplier — clay, feldspar, silica

Gas Distribution

CRITICAL — 86% monopoly, gas = #1 kiln cost, +66.7% price increase

Electricity Generation & Distribution

Industrial electricity $117/MWh, #2 production cost

Glass and Glass Products

Competitor material — glass tile, countertops

Structural Metal Products

Competitor material — metal panels, decking

Paints, Varnishes and Lacquers

Adjacent material — wall finishes, partner for color systems

Plastic Products

Competitor material — vinyl flooring, LVT

Wood and Wood Products

Competitor — wood flooring, CAGR 0.3% = dying industry

Furniture

Adjacent — kitchen/bath furniture drives renovation

Architectural and Engineering Services

GATEKEEPERS — 165K architects SPECIFY which tile goes in projects

Wholesale Trade

Distribution channel — 45.8% margin > Cesantoni's 38.9%

Road Passenger and Freight Transport

Logistics — oil -16.4% = renegotiate freight NOW. 47.1% margin > Cesantoni

Retail Trade

End channel — 57.0% margin = HIGHEST! Forward integration opportunity

Real Estate Activities

DEMAND ENGINE — 90.4% margin, rate cuts 7.4% = construction boom

Hotels and Camping Sites

PREMIUM CLIENT — one company = 37.9%, potentially $57.5M tile opportunity

Restaurants and Bars

1.77M restaurants, CAGR 3.1% fastest growing, kitchen tile mandatory

Hospitals, Medical and Dental Services

441K facilities, 58.9% govt (IMSS ~6,500 facilities = mega buyer), tile mandatory by regulation

Education

182K schools, 64.9% govt, institutional channel

Machinery Rental (Construction)

Construction activity proxy indicator

Motor Vehicles and Parts

Nearshoring indicator — new factories = construction demand, showrooms = premium tile

Sale, Repair Motor Vehicles & Automotive Fuel

15K+ dealership showrooms = premium tile, 12K+ gas stations = high-traffic anti-slip

Monetary Intermediation (Banking)

CRITICAL — mortgages = #1 financial driver of housing demand. Rate cuts 7.4% (-25.7%) = construction boom

Insurance and Pension Funding

Housing insurance required for every mortgage + premium corporate offices. Salary $56,138 = highest of all industries

Telecommunications

7K+ Telcel stores = retail tile, data center boom = construction, Slim's Carso empire = mega real estate developer

Computer and Related Services (IT/Software)

Nearshoring tech offices = premium tile demand. 243K companies, 59.2% margin, salary +8.5% fastest growing

Sporting and Recreational Services

Gyms, casinos, stadiums, water parks = anti-slip + premium tile. 110K venues

Library, Museums and Cultural Services

#1 LatAm cultural sector. 51.7% govt-funded, 1,200+ museums = institutional prestige tile

ISIC 269 Production Statistics — ALL Subcategories (Mexico, 2020-2025)

Bricks/Tiles fell -11.6% from 2022 peak while Cement grew +19.1% — tiles losing share in construction materials mix

Bricks/Tiles Production — Mexico vs USA (2020-2025)

USA grew +47.6% while Mexico grew +14.1% — USA 3.4x faster. Mexico ~60% the size of USA in tiles production. Opposite trajectories post-2022.

Machinery for Construction (Activity Proxy)

Machinery CAGR 4% > Construction 2.8% — CAPEX growing = more future construction activity

Furniture in Mexico (Co-Acabado with Tiles)

Furniture market 5.4x tiles — pero Lear Corp (auto seats) distorts. Real home furniture market much smaller. Household demand 43.2% = co-purchase with tiles.

Paints and Varnishes in Mexico (Co-Acabado with Tiles)

Paints 2.25x larger than tiles (USD 6.3B vs 2.8B) but tiles has DOUBLE the margin (38.9% vs 19.4%). Same buyers (constructoras), same stage (acabados). PPG/Comex = Interceramic equivalent in paint.

Residential Real Estate Loans as % of Total Loans (Quarterly, IMF)

Mortgage credit FALLING — peak 19.8% (Q2 2023) to 18.5% (Q4 2025), back to late-2020 levels. Explains tiles decline: less residential construction.

Real GDP Growth (QoQ %, Non-seasonally adjusted)

GDP decelerating: Q4 improved to +2.8% (vs +0.9% Q4 2024) = possible stabilization. Strong seasonal pattern: Q1 always negative, Q2 always positive. GDP leads tiles by 2-3 quarters.

Inflation (QoQ %, Non-seasonally adjusted)

Inflation halved from peak (2.3% QoQ → 0.6-1.1%). Near Banxico 3% target. Lower inflation = lower input costs + better purchasing power + cheaper mortgages. POSITIVE for tiles.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (MXN million, Current Prices)

Consumption grew +52.7% nominal (5yr) but only ~15-20% real. Decelerating: +14.4% (2021) → +4.6% (2025). Tiles = 0.20% of total consumption. Q4 is strongest (aguinaldo). Don't expect demand expansion — fight for market share.

House Price Index (Index 2010=100, Non-seasonally adjusted)

House prices up +61.8% in 5yr but tiles FELL — paradox explained by affordability crisis. High prices = fewer first-time buyers = less new construction. But existing homeowners sit on appreciation = REMODELING opportunity. Cesantoni should target remodeling, not new construction.

Producer Price Index, Manufacturing (Index 2010=100, Non-seasonally adjusted)

Manufacturing input costs +33.3% in 5yr but tile revenue only +14% — manufacturers absorbed ~19pp of cost increase. PPI re-accelerated in H2 2024 (+6.4% YoY) but easing to +2.9% by Q4 2025. Q3 2025 had FIRST decline since 2020 — signal of cost peak. PPI vs CPI gap = margin pressure indicator.

Government Expenditure (MXN million, Current Prices)

Gov spending grew +60% in 5yr. Q4 is always peak (fiscal year-end rush, +30% QoQ typical). 2024 was mega-spend year (+12.8%, pre-electoral AMLO sprint). 2025 fiscal austerity under Sheinbaum (+4.7% nominal, ~1.3% real). Gov = ~28% of total spending. Q4 = key window for public procurement/licitaciones.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (MXN million, Current Prices)

MOST DIRECT tiles indicator. GFCF contracting in 2025 (-0.8% nominal, -4.2% real) — FIRST annual decline. Q3 2025 was -5.0% YoY. The paradox: GFCF grew +12% in 2023 but tiles fell because investment was industrial (nearshoring), not residential. 2025 GFCF contracts but tiles +2% because remodeling decoupled from new construction. GFCF/GDP ~22.9%, below 25% healthy threshold.

Exchange Rate USD/MXN (MXN per USD, quarterly average)

Three phases: COVID crash (23.3), Superpeso (16.99 Q1 2024), Election shock (20.1 Q4 2024), Re-strengthening (18.3 Q4 2025). Cesantoni ~50-60% FX-exposed COGS (glazes, gas, machinery). Superpeso cut import costs ~17% but election shock reversed it +18%. Current 18.3 = moderately favorable. Banxico-Fed spread narrowing as cuts accelerate — watch for peso pressure if spread <2.5%.

Unemployment Rate (% of economically active population)

Full employment (sub-3%) sustained since Q4 2022. All-time low 2.477% in Q1 2025. Provides demand FLOOR (people have income) but NOT growth driver (employment ≠ home buying when prices +61.8%). Divergence: unemployment at record low but tiles fell 2023-2024 — jobs were in services/nearshoring, not construction. Tight labor = wage-push inflation + installer shortage. Growth opportunity is remodeling by employed middle class.

Central Bank Policy Rate — Banxico (%, end of quarter)

Three cycles: emergency cuts (6.5→4.0%, 2020-21), aggressive hikes (4.0→11.25%, 2021-23), easing (11.25→7.0%, 2024-25). Rate cuts reduce mortgage payments ~21% from peak. BUT real rate still +3.6% (restrictive). Credit demand lags cuts by 2-3 quarters. Full credit recovery expected H2 2026, tiles impact H1 2027. Developers planning NOW for 2026-2027 projects — Cesantoni should approach with spec proposals.

Long-Term Interest Rate — 10yr Bond (%, quarterly avg)

Best proxy for mortgage rates (mortgage ≈ 10yr + 2-3pp bank spread). Stickier than policy rate — lagged Banxico cuts by 2-3 quarters. Q2 2024 election shock: rose +14bps despite rate cut. Spread vs policy rate widening to 57bps = market pricing slower future cuts. From peak to current: est. mortgage payment dropped ~MXN 5,500/month. When 10yr drops below 7% (est. Q2-Q3 2026), mortgages hit ~9% = mass-market affordable.

Current Account Balance (USD million, quarterly)

Strong seasonality: Q1 always deeply negative, Q4 always positive. Annual deficit shrinking ($-16.7B 2024 → $-8.2B 2025 = 51% improvement). Superpeso caused record Q1 2024 deficit = maximum import competition for Cesantoni. Weak peso = fewer imports = less competition. Remittances (~$60B/yr) fund informal construction in states like Michoacán, Jalisco, Guanajuato — tile demand floor.

Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans (%, quarterly)

Share of bank lending going to housing. Rose from 16% to 19.8% during COVID (flight to real assets), now declining to 18.5%. PARADOX: rates falling but RE share also falling — nearshoring/commercial lending growing faster, stealing credit allocation from housing. This is STRUCTURAL, not cyclical. Cesantoni should diversify beyond residential to capture industrial/commercial tile demand. Watch Q1-Q2 2026: if share rises above 19%, strong buy signal for tiles.

Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans (%, quarterly)

Banking system remarkably healthy — NPLs only ranged 1.98-2.56% over 6 years (vs USA 5.4% in 2009). PARADOX: high rates didn't raise NPLs because full employment + fixed-rate mortgages protected borrowers. All-time low 1.98% at Q2 2024 despite 11% rates. Slight H2 2025 uptick (2.24%) but NOT alarming. Banks CAN lend more — the constraint on housing credit is bank STRATEGY (preferring commercial), not bank HEALTH. Current 2.17% = normal zone, no restriction on mortgage lending expected.

Government Net Lending/Borrowing as % of GDP (quarterly)

Government in perpetual deficit. 2024 was fiscal BLOWOUT (-19.9% of GDP) driven by Tren Maya, Dos Bocas, pre-electoral spending. Q1 2025 austerity signal (-1.45% vs -5.72% prior year = 75% Q1 reduction) under Sheinbaum. But Q4 structural spending persists (-6.39%). KEY: AMLO deficit went to mega-projects (rail/refinery) using industrial materials, NOT ceramic tiles. Sheinbaum's pivot to social/housing programs could be MORE favorable for tile demand.

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (MXN million, annual)

Nearshoring hype exceeded reality — FDI peaked 2022 (MXN) / 2023 (USD due to superpeso). 2024 declined slightly. FDI drives industrial construction but NOT directly tile demand — the HALO EFFECT (worker housing near factories) is the real Cesantoni opportunity. States to prioritize: Nuevo León, Jalisco, Guanajuato.

Specialised Construction Production + Market Size (annual)

$31.7B specialised construction market (tiling, plumbing, electrical, painting) — the direct 'pull' for tile demand. CONTRACTING in USD (-1.2% 2025) and in real MXN terms since 2024. Tile installation is ~8-12% of this market. Growth through volume expansion unlikely in 2025-2026 — Cesantoni must grow via market share, not market expansion.

Bricks, Tiles & Construction Products — Production + Exports + Imports (annual)

CESANTONI'S DIRECT MARKET. Production peaked 2022 (MXN 53.3B) then fell -10% to 48.0B. MEANWHILE imports grew +56% in 5yr to $1.05B — import penetration rising from ~31% to ~39% of domestic consumption. Trade deficit doubled from $177M to $390M. China+India = ~45% of imports. BEST CASE: US tariffs on Chinese tiles + rate cuts + Sheinbaum housing push = perfect storm for Cesantoni.

Construction of Buildings — Production + Market Size (annual)

$116B building construction market — 78% of total construction. FIRST DECLINE in 2025 (-0.4% MXN, -5.2% USD). Tiles lag building starts by 8-14 months — concrete growing in 2024-2025 means buildings in finishing stage by 2026-2027, supporting tile recovery. But only if buildings are residential/commercial (tiles) not infrastructure (no tiles).

Concrete Building Materials — Production (annual)

Concrete GROWING (+6.4% in 2025) while tiles DECLINING — 13.9pp divergence in 2023. Construction shifted to structure-heavy projects (infrastructure, factories) over finishing (tiles). Concrete is 2.3x larger than tiles. Concrete as LEADING indicator: still growing = buildings being started = tile demand should follow in 8-14 months.

Plastic Building Materials — Production (annual, competitor analysis)

Plastic recovered to near-peak (-0.6% from 2022) while tiles still -9.9% below peak. Plastic/tiles ratio grew from 0.69x (2020) to 0.79x (2025) — closing the gap. LVT/vinyl flooring is the #1 competitive threat (cheaper, easier install, DIY-friendly). Tiles must compete on durability (25yr vs 10yr), aesthetics, and wet-area superiority.

Builders' Carpentry and Joinery — Production (annual, competitor: wood flooring)

Wood carpentry (MXN 43B) is 90% the size of tiles — very close competitor. Peaked 2022 like tiles, still -8.9% below peak. Only ~20-25% is direct floor competitor (parquet/duela = MXN 9-11B). Wood recovering faster (+4.3% vs tiles +1.9%). Wood-look porcelain tiles = massive opportunity for Cesantoni to capture wood market share.

Cement, Lime and Plaster — Production (annual, construction mega-indicator)

THE GIANT. MXN 252B = 5.3x larger than tiles, 51% of total building materials. NEVER DECLINED 2020-2025. Cement growing +7.2% while tiles +1.9% = structure-vs-finishing gap (18.5pp peak in 2023, narrowing to 5.3pp in 2025). Gap narrowing = finishing cycle restarting = tiles should accelerate H2 2026.

Construction in Mexico: ISIC 45 — Country Report with Forecasts 2024-2029

Construction CAGR 2.8% 2024-2029 = growing but slowly (#12 in LATAM by growth rate, #1 by absolute growth). 94.7% investment-driven = rate-sensitive. Central bank rate dropping 25.7% to 7.4% = MASSIVE catalyst. Inflation 4.8%→3.1%. 1.22M companies, extremely fragmented (top 5 = 7.5%).

Cement, Stone and Ceramic Products: ISIC 269 — Country Report with Forecasts

ISIC 269 growing SLOWER than construction (1.8% vs 2.8%) — sector losing relative share. #12 in LATAM growth rate. BUT: net exporter (+$1.4B), import penetration declining (11.2%→9.5%), profitability #1 in LATAM. Natural gas +66.7% = cost pressure on ceramic kilns. Average salary $13,047/yr = 2.3x construction average.

Manufacture and Distribution of Gas: ISIC 402 — Country Report

GAS MONOPOLY: Gas Natural de Mexico controls 86% of market (only 15 companies). Cesantoni has ZERO negotiating power on gas prices. Natural gas +66.7% in 2025 flows directly to ceramic kiln costs. Avg salary $30,847/yr = 5.5x construction. Future growth #11 of 13 LATAM = maturing.

Real Estate Activities: ISIC 70 — Country Report

DEMAND END of value chain. USD 139B turnover but CAGR only 0.7% = LAST in LATAM (#13 of 13). Profitability 90.4% = HIGHEST of any sector. 76.4% household-driven = consumer branding matters. Extremely fragmented (top 4 = 1.7%). Near-zero growth means renovation/remodeling becomes primary tile demand driver, not new construction.

Paints and Varnishes: ISIC 2422 — Country Report (finishing competitor)

FINISHING COMPETITOR. Paint market USD 6.3B = larger than tiles (~USD 2.4B) but half as profitable (19.4% vs 38.9%). 46.3% imports (vs tiles 9.5%) but domestic share growing fast (38→54%). Paint is the FIRST renovation purchase (cheapest); tiles follow. PPG/Comex #1 with 4,500+ stores = key distribution partner potential.

Glass and Glass Products: ISIC 261 — Country Report (peer industry)

PEER INDUSTRY: same gas-fired kilns, similar profitability (37.2% vs ceramic 38.9%), same LATAM growth ranking (#12). Mexico = #1 glass producer in LATAM. Vitro (BMV: VITROA) is benchmark for ceramic manufacturers — same cost structure, same gas monopoly exposure. Glass exports 34% of production vs tiles ~15% — export strategy model.

Furniture: ISIC 361 — Country Report (co-acabado, DISTORTED by auto seats)

DISTORTED: Lear Corp (automotive seats) = 67.6% of production. Actual home furniture demand ~USD 6.6B (43.2% household). Furniture = co-purchase with tiles in renovation cycle. 91.4% imports = 'Hecho en Mexico' advantage for tiles. Salary growth +8.5% = fastest of all sectors.

Income and Expenditure: Mexico — Premium Market Profile

PREMIUM MARKET DEFINITION: Top 10% earns USD 132,510/yr, spends 67% discretionary. 241K adults with >$1M wealth by 2030. Ages 45-49 dominate top income band — Cesantoni's core buyer. Home renovation is discretionary spending for this segment.

Households: Mexico — Demographics & Housing for Premium Tile

DEMAND DRIVER: 40M households, #1 LATAM income (USD 41,523), 90.5% mortgage-free = open renovation wallet. House prices +9.2% incentivizes home improvement. Monterrey = priority market #2 (nearshoring FDI boom). Only 8.3% own vacuums = tile is THE default flooring. Premium tile TAM estimate: USD 525M-1.1B/yr.

Consumer Lifestyles: Mexico — Survey Insights (Visual Report)

BUYER PROFILE: Non-essentials = 58% of household spending (USD 20,654). Gen X (45-59) content with finances = premium buyers. Gen Z seeks niche/unique brands. Word-of-mouth = #1 trust source. Eco-conscious products make boomers feel good.

Consumer Types: Mexico — 7 Behavioral Segments (Visual Report)

7 consumer types by behavior (not demographics). Brand Champions + Trendsetters = Cesantoni targets. Brand Champions: loyal, pay premium for quality. Trendsetters: design-forward, early adopters. Budgeteers = NOT target.

Bricks, Tiles and Construction Products — Trade (Exports + Imports)

Tile exports peaked 2022 (USD 703.7M), declined 2023-2024, recovering 2025 (+5.3%). Broader category imports growing every year to USD 1B+. BUT ISIC 269 Country Report shows Mexico is NET EXPORTER (+$1.4B) overall — imports declining as share of market (11.2%→9.5%).

ISIC 269 Company Shares — Mexico (2020-2025)

4 CEMENT companies control 57% of ISIC 269. ALL tile companies (Lamosa, Interceramic, Vitromex, Cesantoni) fit inside 'Others' (42.8%). Tile industry ≈9% of ISIC 269 total. Holcim gaining fastest (+0.9pp in 5yr). Market concentration increasing — big getting bigger.

Residential Real Estate Loans to Total Loans — Mexico Quarterly

Mortgage share peaked Q2 2023 (19.8%), now declining to 18.8% — banks pulling back from housing credit. Confirms Real Estate 0.7% CAGR. BUT Q2 2025 shows first quarterly uptick — possible bottom as Banxico rate cuts take effect. Leading indicator: recovery could signal housing pickup by Q4 2025.

Households Mexico

Consumer Lifestyles Mexico

Income and Expenditure Mexico

Economy, Finance and Trade Mexico

Business Dynamics Mexico

PEST Analysis Mexico

Consumer Types Mexico

Commodities Mexico